Preview: Augsburg vs. Mainz 05 – prediction, team news, lineups

In what could be a decisive relegation match in the Bundesliga at the start of the season, Augsburg are set up to host Mainz 05 in the WWK Arena on Friday.

The home side are 11th with four points from three games and beat St. Pauli 3–1 on September 15. The visitors lost 2–1 to Werder Bremen on the same date and are in fourth-last place in 15th place with two points from three league games.

Match Preview

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The home side finished 11th in the 2023–24 season with 39 points, five places above the division’s relegation spot but just six points ahead of 16th-placed VfL Bochum.

Augsburg have had a mixed start to the 2024–25 Bundesliga season. On 24 August, they drew 2–2 in their first match against Werder Bremen, lost their second match 4–0 to Heidenheim on 1 September and won their last league match against St. Pauli.

Fuggerstadter’s win last time out was more than deserved as they created almost three xGs, created six big chances and prevented St Pauli from creating a single big chance of their own.

Manager Jess Thorup said he was pleased with his team’s response after the loss to Heidenheim, but felt the team looked “nervous” towards the end of the match against St. Pauli.

Thorup’s team have won just twice, drawn once and lost six times in their last nine league games.

Augsburg’s home win against St. Pauli was their first league win in the last four games at the WWK Arena, having won three of their previous four home games.

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Opponents Mainz are yet to win in the Bundesliga this season and will be disappointed not to have picked up any points in their last match, given their defeat to Werder Bremen. Marco Friedl was sent off in the 60th minute.

Their loss will be particularly worrying as the score was 1-1 at the time Friedl was shown the red card, but instead of capitalizing on their numerical superiority, it was Werder Bremen who managed to score a winning goal by Derrick Kohn in the 69th minute.

Boss Bo Henriksen claimed after the match that his team is just as talented as Die Werderaner under normal circumstances, but admitted that his team simply had to win when Friedl was sent off.

Henriksen’s team enter Friday’s match with a 1-1 draw on August 24 in their opening Bundesliga match of the 2024-25 season, before drawing 3-3 with Stuttgart in their second league match on August 31.

Mainz lost to Werder Bremen, the first time they have lost in their last 13 league games. In that period they have drawn six and won six.

Form Augsburg Bundesliga:

Augsburg form (all matches):

Mainz 05 Bundesliga Form:

Mainz 05 form (all competitions):

Team news

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Augsburg remain without defender Robert Gumny due to a knee injury, as well as midfielder Reece Oxford due to illness.

The hosts also have doubts about the availability of Dimitrios Giannoulis And Frank Onyekawho were both substituted during their match against St. Pauli.

As for the visitors, Henriksen’s only concern is the defender Andreas Hanche-Olsenwho may not play due to a head injury.

Mainz could field the same three defenders who played against Werder Bremen, so expect central defenders Dominik Kohr, Moritz Jenz and Maxim Leitsch to protect the goalkeeper Robin Zentner.

Possible Augsburg line-up:
Labrovic; Bauer, Gouweleeuw, Schlotterbeck, Pedersen; Wolf, Rexhbecaj, Jakic, Maier, Vargas; Essende

Possible line-up Mainz 05:
Zentner; Kohr, Jenz, Leitsch; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Hong, Lee; Burkardt

We say: Augsburg 1-2 Mainz 05

Although Mainz failed to capitalise on their opponents being reduced to ten men last time out, they have been tough to beat for some time now.

Furthermore, Augsburg have lost many of their recent games and it would not be surprising if they lose again on Friday.

For a data analysis of the most likely outcomes, scorelines and more for this match, click here.

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