Predictions by Robert Whittaker and Ikram Aliskerov

Former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker faces dangerous dark horse Ikram Aliskerov on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time) in the main event of the first-ever UFC Fight Night card in Saudi Arabia, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Top-five heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov will rock Riyadh’s Kingdom Arena in the co-headliner, while former interim middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum will square off against Daniel Rodriguez in the featured bout.

Muhammad Naimov takes on Felipe Lima in a featherweight bout and light heavyweights Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir kick off the main card.

MAIN CARD (from 9pm Sunday SA time):

Robert Whittaker (1.64) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (2.30) (middleweight)

Former 185-pound king Whittaker (27-5) was preparing for a war with undefeated juggernaut Khamzat Chimaev before he was dealt a huge curveball last Friday when news broke that “Borz” was forced out of the fight after suffering “violent had become ill.”

The highly anticipated showdown was a likely title eliminator, with Whittaker sitting third in the rankings and Chimaev having a lot of hype behind him. Instead, “The Reaper” will now face highly touted prospect Aliskerov (15-1), who was originally scheduled to face Antonio Trocoli in the co-main event of last weekend’s UFC Vegas 93.

One of the best middleweights of all time, Whittaker is the epitome of a complete fighter and has few to no weaknesses. He has been at or near the top of the division for almost a decade, with his only losses in the last nine years coming to former defending champion Israel Adesanya and current king Dricus du Plessis.

Quick, slick and cerebral, the Australian ace bounced back from defeat to return to South Africa’s fighting pride with a decisive victory over Brazilian powerhouse Paulo Costa in February. A consummate professional who is confident in his skills, he did not hesitate to accept the late victory. change of opponent.

Whittaker is as athletic as he is intelligent, combining beautiful striking with excellent footwork and solid wrestling. He has nine knockouts and five submissions to his name.

In a bid to skyrocket into title contention, Aliskerov is a former world combat sambo champion who burst onto the UFC scene in style last year, scoring first-round victories over Phil Hawes and Warlley Alves.

The deadly Russian has six knockouts and five submissions in total and has solid experience outside the UFC, with his only defeat coming to the man he replaces this weekend, Chimaev, in 2019.

However, having spent less than five minutes in the Octagon, it’s difficult to gauge just how good the 31-year-old is. He’s the real deal, but this is such a sudden and huge step up in competition that it remains to be seen whether he’s ready for it now.

Whittaker has never taken an opponent lightly and with a lot to lose in this fight, he won’t be starting now. With Aliskerov having never faced a fourth round and Whittaker being a master of five-round main events, the decorated veteran will likely push the pace and put pressure on the first headliner to test his balance and fitness.

Whittaker has the elite experience, speed, sharp offense and takedown defense to win via TKO or decision, so I’m happy talking about the money line.

Prediction: Whittaker by TKO.

Best guess: Whittaker at 1.64.

Alternative bet: by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.80.

Sergei Pavlovich (1.42) vs. Alexander Volkov (2.95) (heavyweight)

Two of the biggest, baddest and best heavyweights in the world will trade leather in the co-main event.

The all-Russian rumble promises to be violent, as neither man works long hours. In particular, third-ranked Pavlovich (18-2) is a fearsome powerhouse who has six straight first-round finishes before suffering his first loss inside the Octagon against Tom Aspinall in their interim title fight last November.

A 6’3″ tank of a man with huge mitts, Pavlovich has 15 knockout victims, including two-time title challenger Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa and Curtis Blaydes, the latter of whom will challenge Aspinall for the interim title in July.

The towering Volkov (37-10) is still chasing an elusive UFC title shot. The former Bellator heavyweight champion has won three in a row, knocking out Jair Rozenstruik and Alexander Romanov before submitting Tai Tuivasa last September, and a win over Pavlovich would certainly put him on the titlist.

The fifth-ranked “Drago” is 6-foot-4 and has 24 knockouts. He will have an advantage on the ground if he can take down his hulking compatriot. Even though Volkov is the taller man, the anomaly that is Pavlovich will have a four-inch reach advantage and knows how to use it.

Add to that Pavlovich’s extraordinary explosion and he should bounce back in a big way.

Prediction: Pavlovich by knockout.

Best guess: Pavlovich by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.71.

Alternative bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.63.

Kelvin Gastelum (1.42) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (2.95) (welterweight)

Welterweights determined to get back on track battle it out in the featured fight.

Since winning Season 17 of The Ultimate Fighter in 2013, Gastelum (18-9) has been a fixture in the upper echelons of the welterweight and middleweight divisions.

He picked up wins over former champions Johny Hendricks, Vitor Belfort and Michael Bisping and took Israel Adesanya to the limit in their war for the interim 185-pound belt in 2019. However, he hasn’t been the same since that decision loss to “The Last Stylebender ”, 2-5 and falls out of the top 15.

Submitted by Sean Brady last time in December, Gastelum must show that he is still the versatile warrior of old. Although he’s been around longer than Rodriguez (17-4), he’s five years younger and at 32, he still has plenty of fighting years ahead of him if he can get things on track.

Rodriguez hasn’t reached the heights of Gastelum, but was also in the top 15 for a while. Back-to-back losses to Neil Magny and Ian Machado Garry have sent his stock down and he hasn’t fought in over a year, so he could be rusty can be.

“D-Rod” is a decent striker and has heavy hands, but Gastelum has an iron chin. He has never been knocked out and has the better balance of stand-up skills and wrestling to dictate terms and get his hand up.

Prediction: Gastelum by decision.

Best guess: Gastelum by decision at 2 p.m.

Alternative bet: Gastelum at 1.42.

Muhammad Naimov (1.76) vs. Felipe Lima (2.10) (featherweight)

Like the headliner, the second leg of the main card had to be changed, with Naimov’s original opponent Melsik Baghdasaryan pulled from the fight on Tuesday due to injury. At extremely short notice comes Lima’s turn, who will want to seize the day in his UFC debut.

Naimov, who has an 11-2 record, was in a similar position to Lima when he made his brief promotion binge and knocked out Jamie Mullarkey a year ago, so he won’t underestimate his new foe.

“The Hitman” returned to featherweight after his UFC debut and has scored back-to-back victories over Nathaniel Wood (by decision) and Erik Silva (by TKO) to extend his win streak to six.

Lima hasn’t tasted defeat since losing his professional debut in 2015. The Brazilian is on a 12-fight win streak and captured the Oktagon MMA bantamweight title with a decision victory over Jonas Magard in his last fight.

There is little tape available on Lima, but from what I have seen he is a fast, feisty striker. Naimov should be able to match him on the feet and his strong wrestling gives him the edge in this regard.

Prediction: Naimov by decision.

Best guess: Naimov at 1.76.

Alternative bet: Naimov by decision

Johnny Walker (1.90) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (1.90) (light heavyweight)

The top 10 light heavyweights promise to get the main card off to an explosive start.

Seventh-ranked Walker (21-8) was well on his way to a title fight. He won three on the trot before being knocked out by Magomed Ankalaev in the first main event of the year, leaving the lanky Brazilian to rebuild.

An exciting and aggressive fighter, the popular Brazilian has a 90% finish rate (16 knockouts and three submissions) and has improved since joining Conor McGregor’s coach John Kavanagh, using his extremely long limbs more wisely and chasing a spear-like jab worked.

Former title challenger Oezdemir (19-7) reminded everyone of his class by knocking out Bogdan Guskov last September and will hope to find the consistency he had earlier in his career in what should be an exciting encounter. “No Time” has a 74% finish rate (12 knockouts and two submissions) and relies on his hand speed.

Walker not only has a seven-inch reach advantage, but is also unorthodox, unpredictable and dynamic, which should see him best his Swiss foe.

Prediction: Walker by knockout.

Best guess: Walker at 1.90.

Alternative bet: Walker by KO/TKO/DQ at 3:15.