Portugal vs Slovenia Prediction – Euro 2024 Picks

Portugal vs. Slovenia Choice

Go for a draw/Portugal in the half-time/final marketSlovenia will not be easy to beat, but Portugal will eventually get the job done.

Bet on Draw/Portugal (+280) at BetMGM

Portugal still have questions to answer ahead of the last sixteen

Portugal were humiliated in their last appearance at Euro 2024. A 2-0 defeat to Georgia on Wednesday was ultimately inconsequential for Roberto Martinez’s men, who had already secured top spot in Group F of Euro 2024. But the loss still didn’t help and cast doubt on Portugal in two key areas.

The first is their strength in depth. This was said to be a major advantage before the tournament began. On paper, Portugal have arguably the deepest squad in Europe. There is good cover in almost every area of ​​the pitch. But when Martinez made eight changes for the Georgia game, his second XI failed.

The second cause for concern was Portugal’s failure to break down a low block. Conceding a goal within 90 seconds meant that Georgia, in a must-win game, never had to step onto the field and take more risks, as they were always defending a lead. That didn’t help Portugal, but their attempts to break down the opposition’s defensive line fell short.

Yet many of the major countries were uninspiring in the group stage. France, England, Belgium or the Netherlands also did not reach the expected heights. Portugal are still among the favorites to lift the trophy next month, although the top online sportsbooks rank them behind England, Spain, Germany and France.

Portugal sailed through the qualifiers, winning all 10 matches, but the European Championship itself is clearly a step forward. Despite his international experience, opinions remain divided about Martinez. He tinkered with the Portuguese formation in the group, with many fans hoping that the head coach does not return to the 3-4-3 that struggled against Georgia last time.

A convincing win on Monday would put Portugal back on track, but right now it still feels like this team has a lot of questions to answer.

Bet on Portugal vs Slovenia at BetMGM

Slovenia were difficult to beat in the Euro 2024 group stage

Unlike Portugal, Slovenia did not lose a single match in the group stage. That is the optimistic view. Those of a pessimistic persuasion will point to the fact that they did not win any either. Three draws with Denmark, Serbia and England ensured that Slovenia became one of the best third places.

Reaching the knockout stages is a great achievement for a country of two million people. It is the first time they have reached the knockouts of a major tournament as an independent nation (although they did in fact reach the last 16 of Euro 2000, which featured that number of teams in the group stages).

Matjaz Kek was already a national hero when he took Slovenia to the 2010 World Cup in his first spell in charge of the national team. His popularity has continued to rise this summer – and it will soar if he manages a shock victory in Frankfurt.

Slovenia is a defense-oriented team. Only Scotland took fewer shots in the group stage, while Kek’s men had the lowest possession of all 24 teams. But they were quite solid: based on expected goals data, seven teams (including Italy, Austria and Turkey) conceded more chances over the first three matchdays.

Slovenia have already shown that they are difficult to beat, while Portugal have shown against both the Czech Republic and Georgia that they sometimes find it difficult to penetrate deep defences, giving the underdogs some hope for Monday’s clash.

Portugal should make progress, but it may not be convincing

Slovenia’s two star players are on either side of the pitch. Atletico Madrid’s Jan Oblak is a world-class goalkeeper, while 21-year-old Benjamin Sesko is one of the most talented young strikers in the game at the moment.

But others turned heads in the group stage. The central defender duo of Jaka Bijol and Vanja Drkusic were solid throughout the match. Andraz Sporar linked up nicely with Sesko up front and showed smart movements and beautiful accents. Full-backs Erik Janza and Zan Karnicnik provided an outlet down the flanks, although the former is suspended for Monday’s match.

Slovenia will settle for keeping it exciting at the back in the first half. The longer they can keep Portugal at bay, the more rush their opponents will get – and that could work to their advantage.

Slovenia frustrated England in the opening 45 minutes of their last encounter and a similar display here could make life difficult for Portugal. Don’t be surprised if the score is still 0-0 when the referee blows his whistle to announce halftime.

Ultimately, however, Martinez’s men should have enough quality to get the job done and secure their place in the quarter-finals, which will see them draw with either France or Belgium in Hamburg. Aim for a draw at half-time and a win for Portugal at the end of the game.

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