NBA Fantasy Draft Strategy for Every First Round Pick

NBA Fantasy Draft Advice for Every First Round Pick

Building a fantasy team is one of my favorite hobbies on the planet, and it’s fun to see how each draft plays out. Every draft is different, and adapting to those changes is what turns a good fantasy manager into a great one. That’s why we’re going to evaluate all 12 first-round picks and make recommendations for each slot. With that said, let’s start with the one everyone’s talking about!

1st overall choice

Nikola Jokic has been the consensus first overall pick for the past few years, but this is the first time he’ll have significant competition. Victor Wembanyama had a historic season in his rookie campaign, and many fantasy managers are taking him over Jokic. The reason for this is because of Wembanyama’s game-changing stats, as he averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks, 1.2 steals, and 1.8 threes on solid all-around percentages last year. The scary thing is that this is likely the worst version of Wembanyama we’ll see, as he’s been rounding the court in blocks and is one of the few guys who contributes in every category. Jokic has won the MVP three times in the last four years and is still the safest option available, averaging 25.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, 9.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 threes at elite percentages over the last two years. You can’t go wrong with any of these stars.

My choice: Nikola Jokic

2nd overall choice

This is the easiest pick in the draft, so we’ll keep it short. Whoever is available between Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama, take that player. It’s the best possible spot to draft, since those two are a coin flip and you get to pick with the first overall pick in the second round.

My choice: Victor Wembanyama

3rd overall choice

With those two superstars gone, it seems likely that two more superstars will occupy the third and fourth picks. Almost every draft out there will have either Luka Doncic or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the third overall pick. Doncic has the better stats at first glance, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s all-around play made him the best player in 9-tier leagues last season. It’s a matter of preference between the two, as you can choose to load up the stat sheet with Doncic or go for an all-around build with Gilgeous-Alexander. Either way, either is a solid option.

My choice: Luka Doncic

4th overall pick

This is the second best spot to pick in the draft, as you get either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Luka Doncic. Don’t overthink it, pick whichever star is left.

My choice: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

5th overall pick

After those first four picks, things get interesting. Jokic, Wembanyama, Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander are drafted in the Top 4 in almost every draft, but the fifth pick is all over the place. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been drafted fifth most often, but some fantasy managers have Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum or Joel Embiid in that spot. Antetokounmpo is a Doncic-esque player who is the safest bet to fill up the stat sheet, while Haliburton will be one of the league leaders in assists. Tatum is the kind of player who does a little bit of everything and is probably the safest bet because he rarely misses a game. Embiid has the most upside of this group since taking home the MVP award two years ago, but his injury risk is huge.

My choice: Giannis Antetokounmpo

6th overall pick

We just took Giannis Antetokounmpo with the fifth pick, so we’re going with Joel Embiid with the sixth overall pick. Embiid posted a career-high 34.7 points per game last season while also averaging 11.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 steals. That assist total was also a career-high, and it’s clear the 76ers will use him in that type of playmaking role as his career progresses. The injury risk does give fantasy managers some time to think, as Embiid only played in 39 games last year and has never appeared in more than 68 regular-season games at any point in his career.

My choice: Joel Embiid

7th overall pick

We’re down to Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum for the seventh pick, and we’re going with Haliburton. He’s averaging double-digit assists per game in consecutive seasons and filling up the stat sheet for the fastest-surging team in the NBA. He’s averaged 20.4 points, 10.7 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.8 threes on 48.3 percent shooting from the field and 86.2 percent from the free throw line in his first two full seasons with Indiana. Assists are the toughest stat to find on the waiver wire, so especially in category formats, getting the league leader with that kind of stat-stuffing potential is a significant boost in the second half of the first round.

My choice: Tires Haliburton

8th overall pick

We considered four players at the fifth overall pick, and that leaves Jayson Tatum as the final option in that tier. That means one of those players is going to fall to you, and whoever it is, you’ve landed in a great spot since you’re also going to be picking near the top of the second round.

My choice: Jayson Tatum

9th overall pick

We just finished a tier, and this is where things get complicated. Fantasy managers are split across the board for these final four picks, with Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Trae Young, Stephen Curry, Anthony Edwards, Domantas Sabonis, and James Harden all candidates in this range. We’re going with Davis, as he’s been a Top 3 player in the past and is finally staying on the court. A series of injuries has been the only thing holding Davis back throughout his career, but the big man missed just six games last season and has appeared in 45 of the Lakers’ final 48 games in the 2022-23 season. Few players in the league can say that, and Davis also puts up elite numbers across the board and game-changing defensive metrics.

My choice: Anthony Davis

10th overall pick

We just listed a handful of players who could go late in the round, but it’s hard to put Stephen Curry any lower than this one. There aren’t many players who can guarantee you a win in a category, but that’s what Curry has done with three-pointers. The sharpshooter holds five of the top six three-pointers in NBA history and sank 357 threes last season. That’s hard to fathom considering Luka Doncic is second only to the league with nearly 100 fewer threes. That fits nicely with his 28.3 points, 5.9 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 1.0 steals over the past four seasons. He’s also led the league in free throw percentage at 91.9 percent during that span and is one of the few guys who will lead the league in multiple categories. He’s a strong option in both points and category competitions.

My choice: Stephen Curry

11th overall pick

There are plenty of options to choose from for this pick, but Trae Young is the best bet. He was a Top 10 fantasy pick before Dejounte Murray joined Atlanta, and he should approach that range after Murray was traded to New Orleans. That should boost Young’s usage and shot attempts, which is good considering he averaged 25.7 points, 10.8 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 3.2 threes in a “down” 2022-23 season. He’s one of the few players likely to match Haliburton for a league-leading assists, and he could do so while finishing in the Top 5 in scoring and three-pointers made.

My choice: Trae Jong

12th overall pick

Most fantasy managers would go with Kevin Durant or Anthony Edwards at this spot, but we’ll pivot. I’m bullish on James Harden having a bounce-back season, as he’s one of the few remaining players for the Clippers. They traded Paul George in the offseason and Kawhi Leonard is already dealing with a knee issue as the regular season approaches. That should force Harden into the Houston-esque role that made him a top fantasy option, as he averaged 29.7 points, 7.7 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 3.3 threes in his eight seasons with the Rockets. He was also the league’s best free-throw booster, making 86.2 percent of the NBA’s highest volume. We don’t expect that kind of return, but even 85 percent of that would make him a value late in the first round.

My choice: James Harden

Other players to consider: Anthony Edwards, Kevin Durant, Domantas Sabonis, LeBron James And Devin Boeker