NASCAR: Darlington Betting Odds, TV Network, Start Time

Goodyear-400

3:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

The number of realistic winners in 2021 is decreasing.

Kyle Busch became the 10th driver to win in the first 11 races when he took the checkered flag Sunday at Kansas. Busch and the nine other drivers with wins so far in 2021 are provisionally locked into the playoffs.

There are a few other drivers who you might reasonably expect to take a win before the playoffs begin this season. Will those wins happen? And will we be surprised if someone else reaches Victory Lane?

All 10 drivers who have won this season are in the top 15 of the points standings. At this point, there is no real “random” winner. Michael McDowell’s win at Daytona was a surprise, but he is also currently 13th in the points standings. His average finish is better than Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman.

Of those five drivers in the top 15 without wins, it’s safe to say that three of them will win at some point in 2021. Points leader Denny Hamlin is going to win sooner rather than later. And so are Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick, even though Harvick hasn’t been his dominant self so far this season.

The other two drivers without a win in the top 15 are Austin Dillon and Chris Buescher. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dillon earn a win to make the playoffs — he’s won a race in three of the last four seasons. But he’s led just eight laps so far and has just one top five.

Buescher would be a surprise. He has only two top-10 finishes and has never finished higher than seventh. He is accumulating points at a reasonable pace to make the play-offs at the moment, but he is not in contention for victory.

Unless Buescher wins — or someone else not mentioned above — there will likely be 13 or 14 winners in the first 26 races of the season. That would leave at least two playoff spots open for drivers to fight it out on points. It’s not impossible for 16 or more drivers to win races before the playoffs begin. But it’s still very, very unlikely.

Here’s a look at the odds for Sunday’s race at Darlington. As always, these odds are provided by BetMGM.

The favorites

Kyle Larson, +400

Denny Hamlin, +550

Martin Truex Jr., +600

Kevin Harvick, +700

Kyle Busch, +800

Larson takes over the favorite status from Hamlin after his speed on intermediate tracks so far this year. Larson led more than 100 laps at Kansas but did not win. Larson has just one win so far this season but clearly has the fastest car on tracks similar to Darlington. He also has five top-10 finishes in six races at the egg-shaped track.

Each of the other four drivers on this list has won at Darlington, though Busch’s victory came in 2008. Both Hamlin and Harvick have won at Darlington three times, and Truex won the race at the track in 2016.

Good mid-range value

Alex Bowman, +1800

Ryan Blaney, +2000

Bowman has finished in the top six in two of the three races at Darlington in 2020. He was second to Kevin Harvick and led 41 laps in the spring and was sixth in the fall. Blaney has struggled at Darlington throughout his career but has been one of the faster drivers at intermediate tracks so far this season. And his chances are pretty tempting for a racer.

Do not install this driver

Aric Almirola +8000

Almirola’s only two Darlington top 10s came in 2020. He was seventh in May and ninth in the fall, and he also finished 12th at the track last year. But that’s about the closest he’s come to a win at the track, and he’s never led a lap at Darlington in 11 starts.

Are you looking for an opportunity?

Ross Chastain, +25000

Chastain has finished in the top 20 in each of his last four starts since crashing in the Bristol dirt race. He’s coming away with solid finishes despite not scoring any points in the stages, only moving from 26th to 24th in the standings. Those finishes are worth a $1 bet on if you’re looking for a big payday that probably won’t happen.

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