Fantasy Football Draft Debate: What’s Your Ideal Pick Number (and Strategy)?

Of course, you’d think the majority of people would just want the No. 1 pick in their fantasy football drafts, but it’s all contextual — some may even prefer the 12th pick depending on the season. Fantasy analysts Scott Pianowski and Matt Harmon debate the best way to start the 2024 draft, with one side going the top-four pick route and the other going 5-8.

The argument for a 1-4 pick

The first point I want to make is that draft slots don’t have to be stressful. Every draft slot — every draft strategy — can be a winner if you pick the right players. Don’t beat yourself up before your season even starts.

But if you ask me to pick my own draft slot, that’s a different matter. I’ll take something in the top four, please.

Maybe it’s counterintuitive, but the fourth pick is probably my overall preference. I’m looking at everyone in that Fab Four — Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall or Ja’Marr Chase — and my second-round pick isn’t that far off the middle. My best drafts tend to come when I’m not on both sides of the wheel, which allows me to keep a better feel for the draft.

I know I’m not alone in my early-round draft thinking — I’m going to look for one anchor back and multiple impact receivers with my first few picks. Tight end is a semi-priority, but probably not in the first four rounds. And quarterback is so deep this year, I’ll start on it when I get around to it.

Make sure you give Hall a fair chance. He spread his wings in the second half of last year and the Jets have arguably the best roster in the AFC. The offensive line is a monster. If Aaron Rodgers is just an average quarterback, the Jets will make the playoffs. If Rodgers actually has anything left, this team could go to the moon.

Lamb and Chase probably speak for themselves — Lamb broke out in the second half of football last year, and Chase has always looked like the type of player who’ll have a 20-touchdown season sooner or later. I’d put them in a class above Tyreek Hill (a god, but the age range has to be taken into account) and Justin Jefferson (probably QB-proof, but I’m interested to see how that plays out). And McCaffrey’s versatility and touchdown equity remain nice things, even if the Niners don’t have their usual steamroller group on the offensive line.

Some leagues give managers the choice to set their draft slot priority, and here are my top four preferred slots: 4-3-2-1. The talent pool tends to flatten out in the second and third rounds, but that’s generally not the case in the first round, when picking early is usually an advantage.

Don’t agree? That’s why we have a game. Go build your masterpiece, go paint your Mona Lisa. —Scott Pianowski

The argument for a 5-8 pick

The good news for drafters is that I don’t see many clear dark spots or players to avoid in the first round drafts of this fantasy football season. However, one area that I have particularly enjoyed selecting is the middle of Round 1 between Picks 5 through 8.

In this range you’ll find the ADPs of Bijan Robinson and, if all goes well, the aforementioned Hall, both of whom I consider foundational players at the running back position. Robinson and Hall were top-10 scorers last season and are now getting an ecosystem boost thanks to the addition of quarterbacks. In Robinson’s case, a coaching staff change should also help improve Atlanta’s overall offensive efficiency.

I want to close out the first three rounds with one heavyweight at the running back position. If you somehow miss out on both backs in Picks 5 through 8, you can still accomplish the task. In Round 1, select a high-end WR1 producer with excellent ceiling/floor projection like Amon-Ra St. Brown, then turn your attention to the Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry layer in Round 2. Those players aren’t at the same ideal point in their careers as Robinson and Hall, but that’s why they’re gambles for the second round.

If you want to play younger, you can add Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane. They are not exactly risk-free either, but we know the tangible potential of the score.

I typically want to see a running back position addressed as early as Round 2, since the third round offers so many strong wide receiver bets. My favorite team builds are ones where I have two receivers and a running back locked in by the time the third round rolls around. As my colleague Scott Pianowski told me last year, you want “receivers who can start themselves.” If you don’t have two of those by Round 3, I think you’re in trouble.

Once Round 4 rolls around, I usually put the options on the board. There are more interesting wide receiver picks, no doubt about it, and depending on your league, you might even get a Josh Jacobs or Rachaad White. At the same time, I wouldn’t rule out a onesie position if there’s still an elite TE1 hanging around or if I just like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes better than the guys around them. —Matt Harmon