Fantasy Football 2024: 4 Players Who Need Career Years to Justify Their ADPs

When I started writing this article, I promise I didn’t set out to create a list comprised solely of players from the 2022 draft class. Although, given that I still hold a candle to Jameson Williams and Jahan Dotson, I may have a slight obsession with the 2022 class as a whole.

It’s actually pure coincidence that four players have a significant increase in their 2024 ADPs in their third year, and they’d have to have had stellar years to justify it. But is it really coincidence?

In recent years, we’ve been blessed with instant rookie breakthroughs — Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase, to name a few. We’re spoiled! But before these sensational rookie breakthroughs, we were looking for Year 3 breakthroughs.

Don’t be blasé about the rookie’s recent success; the Year 3 breakthrough is still very real. Nico Collins proved that in 2023.

This year we have several players who have seen an increase in their ADPs due to their massive breakout potential. Let’s discuss what we need to see from these players in order for them to pay off at their current draft positions.

To be perfectly clear, this list is not meant to dissuade you from drafting any of these players. It is meant to help you understand what kind of production is needed and what the risk is of drafting them at their potential ceiling.

No player, in my opinion, exemplifies this better than Drake London.

Like a fantasy football managerthere is absolutely nothing anyone can say to stop me from drafting london. like a fantasy analystThe reality is that we are asking for the best case scenario for London. What we are really asking for is for Kirk Cousins ​​to create a Justin Jefferson-Lite in Atlanta.

Through the first two years of his career, London has failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards and has six total receiving touchdowns. The lack of production is understandable with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Despite these struggles, London has shown elite potential and Cousins ​​is a significant upgrade at quarterback. The question is, can Cousins ​​bring out the true big-play target hog in London and make those 10-reception, 172-yard performances a regular fixture?

We’re asking a lot again. London’s ADP has risen to early Round 3 and could rise even higher. We’re drafting him at his ceiling, but the ceiling has potential for the Sistine Chapel.

Like London, Wilson’s inability to develop into a superstar in his young career isn’t his fault. It’s not unusual for wide receivers to deal with mediocrity for much of their careers, and to say Wilson has dealt with mediocrity would be an understatement. But Aaron Rodgers is healthy and expectations are high after a 168-target season in 2023.

Combine the overall boost in ADP for receivers, plus the expectation of Rodgers’ return, and Wilson is drafted right behind AJ Brown — a receiver who has finished in the top 10 two years in a row. Wilson has a late Round 1 ADP and will need a career year to pay off. He’ll need to see a boost in receptions, yardage and touchdowns to justify such an aggressive ADP.

Wilson is the undisputed target hog in the Jets’ offense, having passed for over 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons despite poor quarterback play. But his ADP is a ceiling game, largely dependent on Rodgers increasing his red-zone opportunities. Wilson will also need to maintain his target share with the addition of Mike Williams, who was just activated from the PUP.

While Olave hasn’t had the same quarterback issues as the aforementioned receivers, consistency in targets has been a struggle thus far in his career. Combine inconsistent targets with a lack of touchdowns and the result is a receiver who simply can’t produce in the top 12. That’s a problem when you’re drafted as a WR1. Olave is very similar in situation and production to a player like Terry McLaurin — both draft WR1s with a capped ceiling due to inconsistency at quarterback and lack of touchdowns.

For reference, McLaurin’s best performance was WR14 in 2022.

While London and Wilson are drafted at their potential caps with corresponding quarterback upgrades, Olave carries a higher ADP but remains tied to a quarterback who has consistently struggled with production in the red zone.

Olave must also consider the emergence of Rashid Shaheed. While new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could increase the Saints’ productivity as a whole, Olave has a lot working against him to put up career numbers and justify his ADP.

The 2022 receivers aren’t the only ones looking to make aggressive moves in 2024. White steps up as the Raiders’ RB1 with Josh Jacobs in Green Bay.

Is it fair to say you’ve had a great year if you’ve never been a regular? Probably no. But in White’s case I’ll allow it because he’s in the third year of his career and his ADP continues to climb as people realize he’s locked in as the Raiders’ lead back.

Unlike the receivers, White’s ADP isn’t wildly aggressive. But there’s the factor of the unknown with White. We have a small sample size to look at with the 2023 White. Jacobs was injured and missed the final four games of the season. During those final games, White stepped up as a lead back and was the 13th RB in half-PPR points-per-game average with two games of 100+ rushing yards. White also had the most attempts and the third-most yards of any running back during that span.

But we have to be careful with small sample sizes. White’s backup — Alexander Mattison — is a textbook example of small sample sizes that don’t amount to a full workload. White could also cede third-down work to rookie Dylan Laube, and goal-line opportunities could be minimal if the Raiders offense struggles as a whole.