Can Spain make history with its first Olympic-World Cup double?

For 28 years, or eight cycles, women’s football has been a part of the Summer Olympics. But since the first event at the 1996 Atlanta Games and through all seven editions, the previous year’s World Cup winners have yet to complete the double and win a gold medal.

Even the great German team, which was the first to win the World Cup back-to-back in 2003 and 2007, could only win bronze in 2004 and 2008. The great American teams, who were crowned world champions in 2015 and 2019, fared much worse, being eliminated in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively.

The Italian men won gold in 1936, between their first two World Cup victories. But why did a women’s team never manage to win that elusive Olympic gold medal the following year?

Saturday may give us more of an answer. This tournament has brought a new World Cup champion and Olympic debutant at the same time: Spain. And only a semifinal against Brazil and a final against the USWNT or Germany stand in their way.

In the run-up to Paris 2024, there was much optimism that Spain could make history. However, the country also faced a lot of unrest: there was a change of coach, with Montserrat Tomé replacing the controversial Jorge Vilda. In addition, there is still a feud with the federation off the pitch after the scandal between Luis Rubiales and Jenni Hermoso.

Three wins from three matches in the group stage do not say everything. The Red one have been disappointing and have so far failed to get out of second gear. In fact, they were nearly knocked out in the quarter-finals, needing a 97th-minute goal from defender Irene Paredes to force extra time against Colombia before winning 4-2 on penalties.

To make history, Spain must overcome it. Only Japan and the USWNT have come close to achieving the double before.

When the 1999 American top players took on the Olympic obstacle course in Sydney, they lost the final 3-2 in overtime to Norway, after a sudden-death goal from Dagny Mellgren.

Then, after Japan’s fairytale success at the 2011 World Cup, following the disaster at home following the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, the US team took revenge for their penalty shootout loss in that final by beating the Japanese. Nadeshiko 2-1 at Wembley Stadium in London and won gold at the 2012 Games.

“I think we had a big goal (at the World Cup), a desire to win the tournament because the bad things were happening in Japan,” former Japan midfielder Yuki Nagasato told ESPN. “It was bigger than us. Like the US in 2019, when they were fighting for equal pay; so that kind of desire to win over victory. That’s the goal we had.”

In 2016, all eyes were once again on the USWNT. With gold medals won at the Athens (2004), Beijing (2008) and London (2012) Games, they were expected to win in Rio de Janeiro. Yet a team that had so emphatically won the 2015 World Cup was eliminated in the quarterfinals on penalties by Sweden, the only reigning world champions to fail to reach a medal match.

Perhaps the main reason why no team has followed up their World Cup success with gold is that the Olympic football tournament is an endurance test; a gauntlet that must be picked up. Only 12 countries qualify, meaning the standard is incredibly high (unlike the men’s, which fields U23 teams, the women’s tournament is far more prestigious) and countries have to field smaller squads of 18 rather than 23. There are also only two rest days between each match (apart from an extra day for the gold medal match), leaving little time for recovery as they play three group games in nine days.

“It’s just really hard to win these kinds of tournaments,” Nagasato added. “There are multiple things (needed) to win: it’s timing, it’s peaking, it’s (avoiding) injuries … you have to put all the pieces together to win.”

Rhian Wilkinson, who was part of Canada’s bronze medal-winning team in 2012 and 2016 and is now Wales’ national coach, told ESPN there are many variables that determine whether someone is successful.

“I would say it (the Olympics) is a very different tournament,” she said. “The World Cup is the most accurate decider of who the best team in the world is, and you have a bigger squad, you have rest between games. You have the preparation part down to a T and then you have to perform consistently. The Olympics is such a fast-paced game and such a tight squad that there is a bit more luck involved. It could be the weather you get, it could be the travel distance, there are so many variables.

“And then there’s how healthy you can keep your team … how healthy they (other players) come in. At the World Cup you can bring players who might be playing a little bit later in the tournament if you’re one of those top teams. It’s dangerous to bring someone who’s kind of a knockout to the Olympics because you’re playing non-stop and you have to be able to rotate a little bit because it’s impossible (the schedule).”

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Kassouf: Hayes gets the patient USWNT performance she was looking for

Jeff Kassouf reacts to the US national team’s overtime victory over Japan in the quarterfinals of the Olympic tournament.

Wilkinson, who supported Canada at the London Olympics, remembers being completely exhausted at the end of the tournament because she had worked so hard to win a medal.

“That was one of the problems we had in 2012, that team … I played every minute of every game, and that was a challenge,” she added. “It’s not surprising that (in the last game) I had nothing left: of course not. And that can’t really happen in top teams. But yeah, that’s why I think you don’t get back-to-back winners, because it takes different things to win those two tournaments.”

Spain arguably have one of the best squads in the world, with quality players all over the pitch, but they first need to beat Brazil in the semi-finals on Tuesday to keep the double dream alive. They managed their group stage clash with the South Americans well enough, winning 2-0, and will be feeling confident. But they can leak goals — a trend that has also been seen in the UEFA Nations League — and that could be evident when they face the USWNT, who are looking good under new boss Emma Hayes, in the final.

The US looks set to be the most dangerous in Olympic tournaments after a disappointing World Cup; of their four gold medals, they failed to reach the World Cup finals three times the year before. Their 2023 World Cup campaign was the most disappointing of all, with an elimination in the round of 16 against Sweden.

Spain will certainly be wary of an American team looking to get back on track. But if they want to make history, they will need the right balance of talent, stamina and luck.