ANALYSIS | Assessment sprint leadouts Tour de France 2024; From Philipsen’s Alpecin to Cavendish’s Astana

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1 – Alpecin-Deceuninck

Leadout: Jasper Philipsen – Mathieu van der Poel – Robbe Ghys – Jonas Rickaert – Axel Laurance – Soren Kragh Andersen

Philipsen, winner of four stages last year, has cemented himself as the best sprinter in the world. This year that may be disputed as Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier have both made great arguments. But there are none and the Alpecin leader may have a flawless run for another green jersey. With Mathieu van der Poel as leader, so much can happen for the Belgian team… But the truth is that the leading group includes incredibly powerful classic specialists Soren Kragh Andersen and Axel Laurance; Jonas Rickaert and track specialist Robbe Ghys. In my opinion, Alpecin has the strongest lead.

2 – Astana Qazaqstan team

Leadout: Mark Cavendish – Cees Bol – Michael Morkov – Davide Ballerini – Evgeny Fedorov

Two teams follow close behind. The first is Astana. The Kazakh team signed Mark Renshaw as DS, Cavendish’s coach in 2021 from Soudal – Quick-Step and the two riders who helped him to multiple victories in that Tour de France: Michael Morkov and Davide Ballerini. The Dane may not be at the same level as before, but both remain very experienced and valuable in the flat finals.

They will likely lead Cees Bol into the final sprint, and the Dutchman should have the speed to match other luxury sprinters to launch Cavendish. The question here, however, will not be the quality of the leadout, but whether Cavendish can make good use of it, which has certainly not always been the case this year.

3 – Team Jayco AlUla

Leadout: Dylan Groenewegen – Luka Mezgec – Michael Matthews – Elmar Reinders – Luke Durbridge – Christopher Juul-Jensen

In third place is Team Jayco AlUla. Dylan Groenewegen is in good form and I think is as fast as ever. Jayco has the very experienced and powerful Luka Mezgec to support him and I think Michael Matthews will also try to lend a hand. Jayco is a team that has focused enormously on the sprints and this trio is supported by another trio of rollers: Elmard Reinders, Luke Durbridge and Christopher Juul-Jensen.

4 – Uno-X Mobility

Spout: Alexander Kristoff – Soren Waerenskjold – Magnus Cort Nielsen – Jonas Abrahamsen

Uno-X is certainly not far behind. Alexander Kristoff has taken several victories in the past month, which is a good sign for the Tour… But it is difficult to match the speed rivals at this point. But he has Baloise Belgium Tour winner Soren Waerenskjold to lead him out; while Magnus Cort Nielsen and Jonas Abrahamsen are also very strong riders who can keep them at the front.

5 – Intermarché – Wanty

Leadout: Gerben Thijssen – Biniam Girmay – Mike Teunissen – Hugo Page – Laurenz Rex

Intermarché is another team with a very strong lead, but Gerben Thijssen has been struggling with form lately. Biniam Girmay can certainly sprint too and I think he will be the man on a few hilly days, but in pure sprints Thijssen is better suited. It will also be interesting to see how Girmay can do as a leader, some riders have made the transition very well. Mike Teunissen, Hugo Page and Laurenz Rex are strong riders for the flat terrain.

6 – Lidl Trek

Leadout: Mads Pedersen -Jasper Stuyven-Ryan Gibbons

Certainly a small leadout, but an experienced and successful leadout. Mads Pedersen normally doesn’t have luxury sprinters to launch him, but in Jasper Stuyven he finds an in-form, experienced and powerful classics rider who is able to surf the wheels and choose the right moment to get to the front. The team team may be supported by Tim Declercq and other figures, but it is Ryan Gibbons who will be the other key rider in the sprints.

7 – Team DSM-Firmenich PostNL

Leadout: Fabio Jakobsen – Nils Eekhoff – Bram Welten – John Degenkolb

DSM is fully focused on stage wins. Fabio Jakobsen has had a difficult year and is looking for a stage win here. Nils Eekhoff will be the main support rider in the flat sprints and the Dutchman may have freedom on some more difficult days. Bram Welten and John Degenkolb will also be very experienced supervisors for this.

8 – Bahrain – Victorious

Leadout: Phil Bauhaus – Nikias Arndt – Fred Wright – Matej Mohoric

Just like in the Giro d’Italia, Bahrain – Victorious will support Phil Bauhaus in the sprints. The German rider will have his compatriot Nikias Arndt to guide him through the dangerous finals; while drivers Fred Wright and Matej Mohoric were able to keep them in position in the sprint.

9 – Lotto Dstny

Leadout: Arnaud De Lie – Cedric Beullens – Jarrad Drizners – Victor Campenaerts – Brent van Moer

Lotto Dstny has Arnaud de Lie in shape and motivated after winning the Belgian national championships. He is a rider for the hilly days, but the Belgian team clearly has plans for the flat sprints. A big leadout, but in my opinion one without an important supporting rider. Cedric Beullens and Jarrad Drizners can control the sprints while Victor Campenaerts and Bren van Moer can keep the team at the front for long kilometers with their big engines.

10 – Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale

Leadout: Sam Bennett – Dorian Godon – Oliver Naesen – Bruno Armirail

Decathlon struggled with its lead sprinter for most of the year, but in May he started working well. After the success of the 4 Jours de Dunkerque, the team has decided to use its rouleur to support Sam Bennett in the sprints. Dorian Godon and Oliver Naesen will be the main riders; Bruno Armirail may also be able to provide good support in the last kilometers.

11 – Arkea B&B Hotels

Leadout: Arnaud Demare – Dan McLay – Luca Mozzato – Amaury Capiot

Arnaud Démare comes into the race looking for a stage win, as he has done in the past. It is not a luxurious leadout, but he has three sprinters behind him. Dan McLay is the main support rider for the flat sprints, while in the rough days Luca Mozzato and Amaury Capiot can also get their own opportunities.

12 – Cofidis

Leadout: Bryan Coquard – Alexis Renard – Piet Allegaert

With UCI points in his pocket, Bryan Coquard can aim for the points classification. Strong for the hilly days, but in the pure sprints the Frenchman receives support from Alexis Renard and Piet Allegaert.

13 – Israel – Premier Tech

Leadout: Pascal Ackermann -Jake Stewart

Israel – Premier Tech has decided to bring Pascal Ackermann to the Tour with this goal. Chris Froome and Michael Woods seemed to fight for the last place in the line-up, but it was given to Jake Stewart instead. There is hope and some focus to support the German in the sprints, but it will be difficult to succeed.

Team Visma | Leasing a bicycle (?)

Leadout: Wout van Aert -Christophe Laporte

I don’t judge Visma because I don’t initially believe they will aim for the sprints. Both Wout van Aert and Christophe Laporte enter the race as servants for Jonas Vingegaard, but this could change later in the race if the Dane dominates or is out of contention for victory. If they decide to do so later in the race, they can finish as high as team number 5/6, the duo is good enough for that on their own, but it must be said that van Aert does not take the same sprint as some of the riders in the race.

We will also have sprinters without a real lead in the race, such as Fernando Gaviria of Movistar, Marijn van den Berg of EF Education-EasyPost… Although these riders do have quality teammates who can ultimately provide quality support in the sprints.

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